LSU is undefeated and ranked higher than Alabama. And yet, the Tide are favored to beat the Tigers this Saturday in Tuscaloosa – by 6.5 points.
Damon Amendolara can see Bama being a three-point favorite because of home-field advantage, but 6.5 points? Really?
Really. In fact, Todd Fuhrman would make Bama a 6.5-point favorite on a neutral field.
“So when you tack on home-field advantage, you’re approaching double-digits,” the Vegas insider and sportsline.com contributor Todd Fuhrman said on CBS Sports Radio’s The DA Show. “And I won’t quite create parallels to the Utah/USC game because we know LSU and Alabama recruit the same way, or even Michigan State/Michigan. But when you look at the way this Tigers team is built, size on the defensive line isn’t one of their strengths. They’re better at the back end in terms of using speed to cover space. (They’re) built more for a spread offense. I think if Alabama can get their running game going and they can connect on a big play in the passing attack early, it’ll put LSU behind the 8-ball.”
Leonard Fournette, who was rushed for 1,352 yards and 15 touchdowns, has all but won the Heisman, while quarterback Brandon Harris has thrown for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns. Harris has also rushed for three touchdowns and is yet to throw an interception.
Nevertheless, Fuhrman has doubts.
“I don’t trust Harris to really put a lot of fear into Alabama defensively,” he said. “And you have to imagine Nick Saban for the last two weeks has gone, ‘All we’re going to worry about is eliminating Leonard Fournette and make anybody else on that LSU roster beat (us).’ I think Alabama wins – and they could do so by double digits.”
DA found this stunning.
“I just think that they have the key positions that you need to beat a team like LSU,” Fuhrman said. “If you have the interior defensive line size like (Alabama does) – hey, if LSU is able to hit a big pass play early to Malachi Dupre, I will tip my hat to them. But I just don’t think if LSU gets behind (that) they have the ability to try and come back. And Alabama clearly knows how much more important this game is to them even than it is to LSU, who’s probably going to need some help if they were to drop this decision.”